Scottish small firms fear Budget hit to growth, survey finds
Research for Novuna Business Finance shows most Scottish small business owners are worried that tax and cost increases in the forthcoming Budget could damage their growth prospects.
Almost nine in ten Scottish small businesses fear that specific Budget announcements could damage the growth outlook and finances of their enterprise, according to new research from Novuna Business Finance.
The company said 89% of Scottish small businesses were concerned about the impact of the Budget, with rises to taxation, business rates and fuel duty topping the list of worries.
The findings come as only around one in four Scottish small businesses (25%) said they were forecasting growth for the final three months of 2026, Novuna Business Finance said, with 57% expecting no change on the summer period and 16% fearing they would contract or struggle to survive the winter months.
Looking ahead to 2027, the company said only 3% of Scottish small business owners were considering overseas expansion, while just 5% were planning to hire young people to train and develop.
The poll, of a representative sample of 1,382 small business owners, found that possible rises to income tax (55%), VAT (53%), employer’s National Insurance (48%) and corporation tax (35%) were cited as the Budget announcements that would most negatively affect business growth and finances. Changing tax thresholds (29%), capital gains tax rises (21%) and the possible introduction of a wealth tax (16%) were also flagged as concerns.
Changes to business rates worried 37% of Scottish small businesses, the company said, while 43% said further taxes on diesel and petrol vehicles would harm their growth outlook and finances.
Further increases to wages for lower-income earners concerned 22% of respondents, and 16% cited possible new rules on flexible working and employee rights. Some 22% of Scottish small businesses also expressed concern over potential changes to salary sacrifice and pension arrangements.
Fragile confidence
Jo Morris, head of insight at Novuna Business Finance, said the scale of concern reflected the challenging economic environment in which small businesses currently operate.
“The depth of concern over next week’s Budget, and the sheer number of issues Scottish small businesses are worried about, reflects the challenging economic environment in which they currently operate,” Morris said.
She said small businesses had been forced to adapt to rising costs and unprecedented market uncertainty following the economic shocks of Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis, and said small businesses needed support from the Budget as much as the public.
The research was conducted by YouGov among a nationally representative sample of 1,382 small business owners during the final two weeks of September 2026, the company said.