Scottish small business growth forecasts rise for first time in 2026
Novuna Business Finance says 25% of Scottish small firms expect growth in the final quarter of 2026, the first uptick this year, though confidence remains well below 2024 and early 2025 levels.
A quarter of Scottish small businesses are forecasting growth for the three months to December 2026, according to new research from Novuna Business Finance, marking the first rise in growth forecasts recorded in Scotland this year.
The figure of 25% compares with 15% in the same quarter last year and follows readings of 23%, 22% and 22% in the first three quarters of 2026, the company said. Despite the uptick, the proportion of Scottish small firms predicting growth remains well below levels seen in the second half of 2024 and early 2025, when quarterly forecasts reached as high as 36%.
The average growth forecast across all four quarters of 2026 stood at 23%, down from an annual average of 26% in 2025 and 31% in 2024, Novuna said.
Scotland’s Q4 figure of 25% was broadly in line with Wales (26%) but behind several English regions, including London (32%), the West Midlands (31%), the North West (29%) and the East Midlands (29%), the company said.
Sector and tax concerns
Comparing the start and end of 2026, growth forecasts fell across seven sectors nationally, with sharp declines in agriculture, property, medical and legal services, while transport, IT and telecoms, education and leisure and hospitality saw annual rises. Manufacturing and construction forecasts stayed flat over the year. Retail growth forecasts rose to 27% this quarter from 21% last quarter but remained down on 32% at the start of the year, the company said.
Novuna said the findings come against a backdrop of economic volatility, with the average price of diesel rising above £2 a litre for the first time. The company’s poll found 48% of Scottish small businesses said further National Insurance increases would negatively affect their growth outlook and finances, while 35% expressed concern over potential rises in Corporation Tax, and 62% said further fuel duty increases would hit their growth plans.
Jo Morris, head of insight at Novuna Business Finance, said: “From our latest data, it is good to see an improvement in small business growth forecasts in Scotland. While the end-of-year rally is modest, the overall position remains some way behind the growth forecasts seen in 2024 and early 2025.”
She added: “Despite all the headwinds, what we have seen since the Covid era and the cost-of-living crisis is that small business owners are resilient. They dislike uncertainty, but they find ways to adapt, innovate and pursue growth.”
The research was conducted by YouGov for Novuna Business Finance among a representative sample of 1,000 small businesses between 28 September and 2 October 2026.